Editor’s note: This is a special edition of The War Horse’s “Under the Wire” newsletter. Each week, we tap into Operation Timeline, our ongoing recap of the Trump administration’s impact on the military and veterans, to focus on one issue and trace back the headlines to show how we got here. Visit Operation Timeline for daily updates and sign up for “Under the Wire.”
Headline: Trump says war in Iran could last four to five weeks, but he’s prepared ‘to go far longer’
Summary: President Trump says the U.S. has “hit hundreds of targets” in the first 36 hours of Operation Epic Fury. Iranian forces have responded to the strikes with multiple attacks on U.S. forces and allies in the region.
As of Monday, U.S. Central Command reported six service members were killed in retaliatory attacks in Kuwait. Iranian officials have reported hundreds of casualties, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel had reported 11 deaths.
Here is how we got here:
Feb. 4, 2025: Trump instructs advisers that Iran should be “obliterated” if it assassinates him.
March 30, 2025: Trump threatens military action if Iran does not negotiate a nuclear deal.
April 1, 2025: Defense Department deploys carriers and additional squadrons.
April 15, 2025: Satellite photos show a second U.S. carrier in the Arabian Sea ahead of a second round of nuclear talks with Iran.
June 16, 2025: Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine introduces legislation to prevent Trump from taking military action against Iran without congressional approval as additional forces are sent to the region.
June 21, 2025: U.S. strikes multiple Iranian nuclear sites in support of Israel. Trump announces Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz were “completely and totally obliterated. … Iran must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater, and a lot easier.”
June 22, 2025: Pentagon warns Iran against retaliation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the U.S. wants to negotiate with Iran and “does not seek war.”
June 23, 2025: Iran attacks U.S. base in Qatar, Al Udeid Air Base. Trump announces a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
June 24, 2025: Iran strikes Israel. Iran’s foreign minister says there is “no agreement” for a ceasefire or cessation of military operations. Trump warns Israel not to retaliate in an all-caps social media post stating Israeli planes “will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave.’”
June 25, 2025: FBI opens an investigation into leaks that the Defense Intelligence Agency had assessed that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were not decimated by the strikes, countering the administration’s claims.
June 26, 2025: Pentagon leaders insist the strikes were successful in totally destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities.
June 27, 2025: Senate votes against reining in Trump’s military actions against Iran.
July 10, 2025: Pentagon can’t say if bombs hit their underground targets to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
July 12, 2025: Iran raises resuming nuclear talks with the U.S. if there are no more attacks of its nuclear sites.
Aug. 22, 2025: Hegseth fires the head of the agency who gave the initial damage assessment of Iran’s nuclear sites.
Dec. 29, 2025: Iran’s president says the country is at war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe.
Jan 11, 2026: Trump threatens military action in Iran as crackdown on protesters continues.
Jan. 15, 2026: Pentagon moves carrier strike group from South China Sea towards the Middle East amid tensions with Iran.
Jan. 25, 2026: Mural in Tehran warns the U.S. against military action.
Feb. 1, 2026: Iran’s leader warns any attacks would lead to “regional war.”
Feb. 2, 2026: Satellite imagery shows the U.S. has 12 warships and dozens of aircraft in or near the Middle East.
Feb. 10, 2026: Trump says he may send a second aircraft if negotiations with Iran fail.
Feb. 13, 2026: Trump sends the USS Gerald R. Ford to join the USS Abraham Lincoln as the U.S. continues to put pressure on Iran.
Feb. 20, 2026: Strikes on Iran could target individual leaders, U.S. officials say.
Feb. 23, 2026:
- DOD’s Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman warns Trump that a strike against Iran would put troops at risk.
- State Department orders all non-essential diplomats to leave Lebanon as the country could be a site for retaliatory strikes if the U.S. strikes Iran.
Feb. 25, 2026: U.S. imposes a new round of sanctions on Iran.
Feb. 26, 2026: U.S. and Iranian officials say they have made “significant” progress in nuclear talks.
Feb. 27, 2026:
- Vice President JD Vance says there is “no chance” the U.S. will be in a long Middle East war.
- State Department allows non-essential employees to leave U.S. embassy in Israel.
Feb. 28, 2026:
- Trump announces on Truth Social “the start of major combat operations in Iran.”
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei killed in targeted US-Israeli air strikes on Tehran.
March 1, 2026: Trump says he will talk to Iran’s new leadership. U.S. announces first three U.S. casualties from Iranian strike
March 2, 2026:
- A fourth U.S. service member died after succumbing to wounds sustained during Iran’s initial attacks. Two more service members’ remains were recovered after a facility was struck by Iranian forces.
- Hegseth, alongside Gen. Dan Caine, tells media U.S. will not get bogged down in a protracted war. ‘This is not Iraq. This is not endless,’ he said, while not ruling out troops on the ground.
